History can educate one to the future! We probably could do ourselves a great service by looking at what history might tell us. As has been said ‘History repeats itself!’ Recently I had the opportunity to hear Jim Wood, an economist at the University of Utah, speak on what to expect in 2009. He has 35 years of experience, including the fields of real estate and construction. He commented on how typically these recession cycles run a four year term. That 2009 is the third year of a four year cycle. The idea being that this year the slow-down in the economy will slow down! Make sense? Thus, ‘The end is near!’ Also, Jim suggested that history has shown that the housing industry leads the economy out of a recession.
Again, the question, ‘What is the signal?’ Could it be the number of buyer-ready folks just on the fence, wondering, should I or shouldn’t I buy! That question can only be answered by the age old question, ‘ When are we ready for any big step in our lives?’ Answer, when we’re almost ready! Could it be that both the Feds and the local government entities are making unprecedented moves to help buyers to make that almost ready move? Could it be the lower interest on mortgage loans that are available for buyers and for re-financing? Could it be the once again down-payment options for buyers? Or the other signs of being the ‘right time’ to enter for the first time, again as an owner or as an investor in real property?
One might ask ‘Is real property a wise investment?’, the answer might be revealed from history. Ask, when wasn’t it? The answer, we’ve just seen a few; buying beyond your means, without studying your own finances or using a qualified planner, interest only loans or buying to make ‘fast profit’ are not when it was the right time. However, the NAR points out that throughout history real property has shown an average increase of five to six percent annually.
I would suggest that the signs are all around that ‘The end is near’, the stock market, volatile as it has been, may be showing signs of strenghtening, crude oil price is climbing, commodity prices also and public confidence seems to be on the rise. The newness of spring is here, at least according to the calendar, when all things living get a new start. When school will soon be adjourned and near is the time when families feel the urge to expand their living space, to make that fresh start and believe their intuition, that with every ‘end’ comes a new beginning!
